Coverage prediction backtest Good fit · Stable
Backtest accuracy for coverage % (predicted − actual).
Within 5: 73% · target 65%
Trend: → stable · Δ 0.00
n
30
backtest rows
Number of evaluation days in this report window (30).
MAE
2.87
mean abs error
Mean Absolute Error — average miss in coverage percentage points. Lower is better. Here, typical error is 2.87. Good ≤5, fair ≤15.
RMSE
4.46
ratio 0.64
Root Mean Squared Error — penalizes large misses. Always ≥ MAE. Ratio RMSE/MAE (0.64) indicates outlier severity.
Bias
+2.87
medium · mean (pred − actual)
Average over/under-prediction (predicted − actual). +2.87 means slight over-prediction.
Within ≤5
73%
target 65% · ≤15: 100%
73% of predictions were within 5 coverage points of actual. Target ≥65%.
Trend
Stable
2.87 → 2.87 (Δ 0.00)
Half-series MAE trend: stable. Δ 0.00 — positive means errors growing (worsening).
What changed? Mixed/regressed
MAE: 2.87 → 2.87 (→ 0% worse) · ≤5: 73% → 73% (↑ 0pp) · Bias: +2.87 → +2.87
Compared to prior bake 2026-07-28T15:23:48.430Z (Good fit).
Quality check
- Good fit
- MAE/RMSE ratio: 0.64
- Bias medium (+2.87)
- ≤5 rate 73% (target >65%)
- σ(errors) 3.42
Trend & stability
- Half-series trend: Stable (Δ 0.00)
- No decay detected
- First half MAE 2.87 → second 2.87
- Over/under 14/0 (16 exact)
Predicted vs actual
Residuals
Signed error (predicted − actual). Red = over-prediction.
|Error| distribution
Bucket counts · green ≤5 · amber ≤15 · red >15.
Stability · rolling MAE
7-day rolling mean absolute error with ±1σ band and good/fair guides.
Last predicted
100.0
coverage %
Last actual
93.0
residual +7.00
Worst |error|
10.00
2026-06-30
Over / under
14/0
16 exact
Error distribution summary
Worst 5 days by |error| · red • exceeds RMSE.
| Date | Actual | Pred | Error | ≤5? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 90.0 | 100.0 | 10.00 | no• |
| 2026-07-15 | 90.0 | 100.0 | 10.00 | no• |
| 2026-07-03 | 92.0 | 100.0 | 8.00 | no• |
| 2026-07-18 | 92.0 | 100.0 | 8.00 | no• |
| 2026-07-09 | 93.0 | 100.0 | 7.00 | no• |
Series (30 rows)
| Date↕ | Predicted↕ | Actual↕ | Error↕ | |Error|↕ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | 100.00 | 93.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| 2026-07-23 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2026-07-22 | 100.00 | 96.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| 2026-07-21 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2026-07-20 | 100.00 | 94.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| 2026-07-19 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2026-07-18 | 100.00 | 92.00 | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| 2026-07-17 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2026-07-16 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2026-07-15 | 100.00 | 90.00 | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| 2026-07-14 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2026-07-13 | 100.00 | 97.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| 2026-07-12 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2026-07-11 | 100.00 | 95.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| 2026-07-10 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2026-07-09 | 100.00 | 93.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| 2026-07-08 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2026-07-07 | 100.00 | 96.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| 2026-07-06 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2026-07-05 | 100.00 | 94.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| 2026-07-04 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2026-07-03 | 100.00 | 92.00 | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| 2026-07-02 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2026-07-01 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2026-06-30 | 100.00 | 90.00 | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| 2026-06-29 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2026-06-28 | 100.00 | 97.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | 100.00 | 95.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| 2026-06-25 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |